Affordability: Resources, Not Money
Probably the biggest thing that trips people up when thinking about countercyclical public policy is a misleading over-emphasis on accounting ledger books as the right measure of what can and can’t be afforded. Making sums add up is important, of course, but it’s more helpful to start by thinking about real resources. People’s time, capital goods, raw materials, etc.
Think about the mayor of a mid-sized city presiding over good economic times. Tax revenues are going up, and demands on social services are relatively low. Suddenly the budgetary picture looks very bright and it seems easy to “afford” longer library hours, more frequent bus service, and tax cuts. This, however, is close to backwards. You can’t manufacture librarians or bus drivers. It’s when times are good that it’s most costly to pull human beings out of whatever else they’re doing and have them drive buses. Similarly, it’s when people are flush that extra money in their pockets is going to go to enterprises with low marginal utility.
Then along comes the crash and suddenly the budget looks bleak. Now we “can’t afford” those extra social services and we need higher taxes. But with household budgets tight, the taxes are much more burdensome than they would have been in good times. And the real social cost of having someone work in a library rather than sit at home unemployed is probably below zero.
What you actually ought to be doing is setting the quantity of social services at some level that makes sense across the business cycle. Then during periods of economic growth, taxes should raise more money than you spend. That way thanks to your stockpile you never need to cut services in the face of a recession and in fact can shower your city with tax cuts during a downturn to families can get by. But of course almost no jurisdiction in America actually does engage in this sort of responsible budgeting, and the Reagan and W Bush administrations took the federal government on a wildly different course. This has bad economic consequences on its own terms, and I also think tends to distort the political dialogue. Since budget deficits are “bad,” it’s unintuitive to say that bigger deficits will help in a recession. By contrast I think it’d be easy for people to see why a surplus-accumulating government shouldn’t try to horde even more money at a time when people are struggling. The reality is that nothing magical happens at zero, and what we “can afford” is ultimately determined by how many resources are available not by accountants.
Rethinking Money: Breaking Up Currencies
from the different-purposes dept
I remember when I was quite young, my father predicted to me that we'd probably see the end of cash within our lifetimes, as all money would move to electronic money in the form of credit cards (or credit card-like interfaces). Every so often this idea has been discussed, but it usually gets shot down by those who like the anonymity of cash (which is one reason why some governments don't like it). So it's interesting to hear via Slashdot that an Estonian economist is recommending that the country go completely electronic as it adopts the Euro. I would imagine there are some issues with doing so (including the fact that cash and coins from other Eurozone countries would inevitably bleed in).
That said, there have been a few other stories lately that have me thinking about the future of money, and I actually could see a way that countries could move in this general direction without actually getting rid of cash entirely. Last year, we wrote about the question of whether or not the world would move to a single world currency, while simultaneously considering whether or not we'd actually start to see growth in very localized currencies, which are increasingly common in various cities to encourage people to shop locally. Again, neither situation seemed ideal, but were definitely interesting to think about.
Recently, however, Umair Haque wrote up an interesting post, positing that money could be split into three types of currencies which serve three separate functions. The idea is not to break them up by region -- as described above -- but by function. Umair's writeup is a bit opaque, but he notes that currency is used as a store of value, as a medium of exchange and as a unit of account, but those functions can be separated. The end result, would be as follows:
You have three kinds of notes in your wallet. The first you use at the grocery store. The second, at the bank and in the financial markets. The third, between your employer, the state, and public services. Each has very different volatilities and trajectories, because each has very different levels of supply, demand which are, crucially, independent from one another--but interdependent on real wealth, long-run productivity, etc.
Now, this may be difficult to comprehend in the abstract. How would that actually work and why would each have different volatilities and trajectories? Well, the good news is that we actually have a real world example of this. A few weeks back the always excellent Planet Money team at NPR did a wonderful episode on how "fake money" saved Brazil from rampant inflation. The story is fascinating, and I highly recommend listening to it. But, it was basically a simplified version of what Haque is suggesting. Brazil had crazy inflation, so crazy that every day, stores had to remark their entire stock to raise prices, and people would rush ahead of the clerk with the price stickers to get "yesterday's" prices.
The way Brazil "solved" the issue was to effectively issue a made up new currency to handle some functions of money: mainly the unit of account. You couldn't actually get paid in it, or pay with it, but all the goods in all the stores were suddenly priced with it. Then, rather than having to change the prices every day, each day, the government would put out a rate card with the exchange rate, and people would work off of that. Now, you might say this shouldn't make a difference, but it actually did. It got people thinking in terms of the new "stable" rates, and got them past their general distrust of monetary value. (One side note: this upset some of the wealthy, who were simply making a ton in interest -- and they complained about how this new system meant they actually had to innovate and invest to make money -- which reminded me of certain industries in the US who like to avoid innovating and investing themselves...).
Either way, you had a situation where the currency for prices was perfectly stable at the same time the other currency was still dealing with massive inflation. As Haque points out, you have different currencies with different volatility. Eventually, Brazil switched entirely over to this new currency and made the fake currency a real currency, but there's no reason why you couldn't keep multiple currencies, and break them up into a third bucket as well, as Haque suggests.
I can definitely see how there could be some value in doing so, providing a lot more flexibility, and removing certain risk elements. However, I do wonder if the greater level of confusion might be a problem for many, and lead to huge potential arbitrage opportunities, where the more financially sophisticated folks took advantage of much less financially sophisticated individuals, to swap these different levels of currency around. I'm not convinced either way on this, but it does seem fun to think about the possibilities...
29 Comments | Leave a Comment..
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Affordability: Resources, Not Money
Probably the biggest thing that trips people up when thinking about countercyclical public policy is a misleading over-emphasis on accounting ledger books as the right measure of what can and can’t be afforded. Making sums add up is important, of course, but it’s more helpful to start by thinking about real resources. People’s time, capital goods, raw materials, etc.
Think about the mayor of a mid-sized city presiding over good economic times. Tax revenues are going up, and demands on social services are relatively low. Suddenly the budgetary picture looks very bright and it seems easy to “afford” longer library hours, more frequent bus service, and tax cuts. This, however, is close to backwards. You can’t manufacture librarians or bus drivers. It’s when times are good that it’s most costly to pull human beings out of whatever else they’re doing and have them drive buses. Similarly, it’s when people are flush that extra money in their pockets is going to go to enterprises with low marginal utility.
Then along comes the crash and suddenly the budget looks bleak. Now we “can’t afford” those extra social services and we need higher taxes. But with household budgets tight, the taxes are much more burdensome than they would have been in good times. And the real social cost of having someone work in a library rather than sit at home unemployed is probably below zero.
What you actually ought to be doing is setting the quantity of social services at some level that makes sense across the business cycle. Then during periods of economic growth, taxes should raise more money than you spend. That way thanks to your stockpile you never need to cut services in the face of a recession and in fact can shower your city with tax cuts during a downturn to families can get by. But of course almost no jurisdiction in America actually does engage in this sort of responsible budgeting, and the Reagan and W Bush administrations took the federal government on a wildly different course. This has bad economic consequences on its own terms, and I also think tends to distort the political dialogue. Since budget deficits are “bad,” it’s unintuitive to say that bigger deficits will help in a recession. By contrast I think it’d be easy for people to see why a surplus-accumulating government shouldn’t try to horde even more money at a time when people are struggling. The reality is that nothing magical happens at zero, and what we “can afford” is ultimately determined by how many resources are available not by accountants.
Rethinking Money: Breaking Up Currencies
from the different-purposes dept
I remember when I was quite young, my father predicted to me that we'd probably see the end of cash within our lifetimes, as all money would move to electronic money in the form of credit cards (or credit card-like interfaces). Every so often this idea has been discussed, but it usually gets shot down by those who like the anonymity of cash (which is one reason why some governments don't like it). So it's interesting to hear via Slashdot that an Estonian economist is recommending that the country go completely electronic as it adopts the Euro. I would imagine there are some issues with doing so (including the fact that cash and coins from other Eurozone countries would inevitably bleed in).
That said, there have been a few other stories lately that have me thinking about the future of money, and I actually could see a way that countries could move in this general direction without actually getting rid of cash entirely. Last year, we wrote about the question of whether or not the world would move to a single world currency, while simultaneously considering whether or not we'd actually start to see growth in very localized currencies, which are increasingly common in various cities to encourage people to shop locally. Again, neither situation seemed ideal, but were definitely interesting to think about.
Recently, however, Umair Haque wrote up an interesting post, positing that money could be split into three types of currencies which serve three separate functions. The idea is not to break them up by region -- as described above -- but by function. Umair's writeup is a bit opaque, but he notes that currency is used as a store of value, as a medium of exchange and as a unit of account, but those functions can be separated. The end result, would be as follows:
You have three kinds of notes in your wallet. The first you use at the grocery store. The second, at the bank and in the financial markets. The third, between your employer, the state, and public services. Each has very different volatilities and trajectories, because each has very different levels of supply, demand which are, crucially, independent from one another--but interdependent on real wealth, long-run productivity, etc.
Now, this may be difficult to comprehend in the abstract. How would that actually work and why would each have different volatilities and trajectories? Well, the good news is that we actually have a real world example of this. A few weeks back the always excellent Planet Money team at NPR did a wonderful episode on how "fake money" saved Brazil from rampant inflation. The story is fascinating, and I highly recommend listening to it. But, it was basically a simplified version of what Haque is suggesting. Brazil had crazy inflation, so crazy that every day, stores had to remark their entire stock to raise prices, and people would rush ahead of the clerk with the price stickers to get "yesterday's" prices.
The way Brazil "solved" the issue was to effectively issue a made up new currency to handle some functions of money: mainly the unit of account. You couldn't actually get paid in it, or pay with it, but all the goods in all the stores were suddenly priced with it. Then, rather than having to change the prices every day, each day, the government would put out a rate card with the exchange rate, and people would work off of that. Now, you might say this shouldn't make a difference, but it actually did. It got people thinking in terms of the new "stable" rates, and got them past their general distrust of monetary value. (One side note: this upset some of the wealthy, who were simply making a ton in interest -- and they complained about how this new system meant they actually had to innovate and invest to make money -- which reminded me of certain industries in the US who like to avoid innovating and investing themselves...).
Either way, you had a situation where the currency for prices was perfectly stable at the same time the other currency was still dealing with massive inflation. As Haque points out, you have different currencies with different volatility. Eventually, Brazil switched entirely over to this new currency and made the fake currency a real currency, but there's no reason why you couldn't keep multiple currencies, and break them up into a third bucket as well, as Haque suggests.
I can definitely see how there could be some value in doing so, providing a lot more flexibility, and removing certain risk elements. However, I do wonder if the greater level of confusion might be a problem for many, and lead to huge potential arbitrage opportunities, where the more financially sophisticated folks took advantage of much less financially sophisticated individuals, to swap these different levels of currency around. I'm not convinced either way on this, but it does seem fun to think about the possibilities...
29 Comments | Leave a Comment..
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No Batmobile in Arkham City <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net
Read our news of No Batmobile in Arkham City. ... Batman: Arkham Asylum 2 teaser 14 December, 2009. Latest News. Batman: Arkham City details emerge . Batman: Arkham City revealed, dated . Batman domains name Arkham sequel? ...
Can Mobile Phones Think?: Tech <b>News</b> «
Nokia's Beta Labs today released a new experimental application called Situations, and it portends a future where context awareness drives the mobile experience, and points to a time when our handsets will do the thinking on our behalf, ...
bench_craft_company
<b>News</b> - Jennifer Aniston, Chelsea Handler Flaunt Bikini Bods in <b>...</b>
The new BFFs show off their curves while celebrating Thanksgiving abroad.
No Batmobile in Arkham City <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net
Read our news of No Batmobile in Arkham City. ... Batman: Arkham Asylum 2 teaser 14 December, 2009. Latest News. Batman: Arkham City details emerge . Batman: Arkham City revealed, dated . Batman domains name Arkham sequel? ...
Can Mobile Phones Think?: Tech <b>News</b> «
Nokia's Beta Labs today released a new experimental application called Situations, and it portends a future where context awareness drives the mobile experience, and points to a time when our handsets will do the thinking on our behalf, ...
bench_craft_company
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